The NBA Summer League just ended and some bookies have already released win totals for the 2022-23 season. The Boston Celtics are at the top of the board at 55.5 over/under wins, along with the Los Angeles Clippers at 53.5 o/u, and the Phoenix Suns at 52.5 o/u.
The current batch of NBA win totals don’t include the LA Lakers, Utah Jazz, New York Knicks, and Brooklyn Nets due to the uncertainty of trade rumors involving Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, and Donovan Mitchell.
The Lakers and the Nets were discussing a swap for Irving and Russell Westbrook, but the negotiations fell apart. Things got so bad that Westbrook and his agent parted ways over his future.
The Knicks want Mitchell, but the Jazz want six first-round draft picks and multiple members from the Knicks’ second unit. Those trade talks have simmered down compared to last week.
The Suns recently signed Deandre Ayton to a max contract, so it looks like they’re not in the market for Durant. With the Suns standing pat, there’s no reason why they can’t compete for the top seed in the Western Conference once again.
The Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat are still candidates to land Durant. At this point, there’s a likely scenario that the Nets begin the season with both Irving and Durant in the starting lineup, and will work out a trade before the holidays.
Big dogs: Celtics, Clippers, Bucks, Warriors
The Celtics were the runner-up last season after winning the Eastern Conference as the #2 seed. The Celtics upgraded their bench with Malcolm Brogdon and Danilo Gallinari, which is why they’re leading all other NBA teams in win totals with 55.5 o/u.
If Giannis “Greek Freak” Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks didn’t lose Khris Middleton to a knee injury, they could have been back-to-back champions. They’ll be on a mission to regain their championship glory, and are 51.5 o/u.
The LA Clippers are eager to get Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup after he missed all of last season with an ACL injury. Paul George missed significant time with a freakish elbow injury. They also have Norman Powell, who’s a contender for Sixth Man of the Year. The Clippers also added John Wall. If Wall is healthy, watch out for the Clippers, who have their win totals set at 53.5 o/u.
| 2022-23 NBA Win Totals – Top 6 Favorities |
- Boston Celtics 55.5 o/u
- LA Clippers 53.5 o/u
- Phoenix Suns 52.5 o/u
- Memphis Grizzlies 51.5 o/u
- Milwaukee Bucks 51.5 o/u
- Golden State Warriors 50.5 o/u
The Memphis Grizzlies and Ja Morant are no longer an under-the-radar team, so perhaps it’s time to start fading their expectations since they now have a target on their backs. The Grizzlies were installed at 51.5 o/u.
The Golden State Warriors are the reigning NBA champions, but they have the sixth-best win totals with 50.5 o/u. The Warriors lost a couple of key role players, but expect their younger players like Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, and Jonathan Wiseman to get more responsibility.
Second tier: 76ers, Nuggets, Heat, Mavs
The Denver Nuggets get Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr back in the starting lineup with two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets also added Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to strengthen their defense. We like the Nuggets to be a surprise team next season, but 50 wins might be on their top end.
James Harden took a $15 million pay cut to stay with the Philadelphia 76ers, and the Beard has been in the gym all summer trying to regain his old form after Joel Embiid called him out after they were knocked out of the playoffs. The 76ers will be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference, but everyone cannibalizes each other, so the #1 or #2 seed might be the only teams in the East to win more than 50 games.
| 2022-23 NBA Win Totals |
- Philadelphia 76ers 50.5 o/u
- Denver Nuggets 50.5 o/u
- Miami Heat 49.5 o/u
- Minnesota Timberwolves 48.5 o/u
- Atlanta Hawks 47.5 o/u
- Dallas Mavericks 47.5 o/u
- Toronto Raptors 44.5 o/u
If you can predict which team the Nets will trade with for Durant, then you’ll probably have an easy path to hitting an NBA win totals wager. The Miami Heat are 49.5 o/u and the Toronto Raptors are 44.5 o/u, but they should easily head north of that initial number if they secure Durant.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have huge expectations after they coughed up four first-round draft picks and five players for Rudy Gobert, but it seems like 48.5 o/u is high for an untested team like the T-Wolves.
Health watch: Pelicans, Trail Blazers, Bulls, Cavs
Health is paramount if you want to bet win totals on these break-even squads. If Zion Williamson can stay healthy, then the Pelicans can definitely finish over .500 next season. The same goes for Zach LaVine and the Chicago Bulls.
The Cleveland Cavaliers gave everyone a glimpse into their future last season even though their backcourt was decimated with injuries. The Cavs rediscovered their mojo and should finish above .500.
Damian Lillard signed a massive extension which squashed any rumors he wanted out of Rip City. Now, it’s up to the Portland Trail Blazers to rebuild a contender around Dame, who is almost back to normal after stomach surgery.
| 2022-23 NBA Win Totals |
- New Orleans Pelicans 43.5 o/u
- Cleveland Cavaliers 41.5 o/u
- Portland Trail Blazers 41.5 o/u
- Chicago Bulls 41.5 o/u
- Charlotte Hornets 36.5 o/u
- Washington Wizards 35.5 o/u
- Sacramento Kings 31.5 o/u
- Houston Rockets 27.5 o/u
- Orlando Magic 27.5 o/u
- Detroit Pistons 26.5 o/u
- Indiana Pacers 35.5 o/u
- Oklahoma City Thunder 25.5 o/u
- San Antonio Spurs 23.5 o/u
The best value is to find one of the bottom feeders that will shed their losing ways and finally crawl out of the basement to secure a playoff berth. We like the Oklahoma City Thunder to win more than 26 games next season and let their young prospects like Josh Giddey and #2 draft pick Chet Holmgren, who looked good in the NBA Summer League, play more often.
